Urbanization's Effect on Commercial Real Estate

The great recession killed the suburbs. Since 2007, metropolitan cities across the country have experienced a migration of residents towards urban living environments. This trend could be the answer to urban decay, with many seeking more fiscally practical and cohesive living arrangements. Referred to as "re-urbanization", the trend is the opportunity San Diego needs to return neglected areas of downtown to their former prestige.  Large adaptive reuse and infill projects have gained traction from Little Italy to East Village, including dynamic public spaces, but it will require buy-in from local employers before the transformation of 'America's Finest City' reaches its potential.

   The new Central library, the renovation of Horton Plaza, and open space meeting areas like Quartyard, SMARTSfarm and Silo at Makers Quarter have created a buzz about downtown. The supply of living spaces downtown is increasing, and the increase in population is expected to drive an increase in demand for workspace. For office space users, this means considering locating you company near your employees or desired talent pool.  If your employees demographic age is 23 – 35, odds are they reside in the area between Mission Valley, the beach communities, and Downtown. This demographic seeks employment in walk-able, livable urban areas which complement their lifestyle. Companies seeking top talent may need to consider their proximity to "live-work-play" environments in order to stay competitive. Planned developments like Makers Quarter and IDEA are courting large employers with build-to-suit options for mixed-use office/retail/residential spaces, which resemble small cities within a city. The challenge in bringing these developments to life is pre-leasing to an anchor tenant large enough to initiate construction. Recently San Diego companies The Active Network and Websense, who occupied approximately 100,000 SF each, relocated out of California, leaving a small pool of local tenants large enough  these projects.

     Downtown's diverse tenant mix now includes technology and professional service providers in numerous co-working spaces and incubators. The area is a logical place to create a hub for hi-tech entrepreneurs. Accelerators like Plug n Play, who expose early stage hi-tech companies to Silicon Valley capital, and Evonexus, the Qualcomm sponsored incubator located in the heart of the Civic-Core district, provide mentorship and strategic funding to start-ups making high-tech innovations. It’s likely that these businesses would stay in the area as they grow, creating a greater demand for office and living spaces. The economic benefit is measurable, according to Steven Cox, CEO of Take-Lessons "there will be 1,500 to 2,000 tech jobs created here in San Diego. The average tech job pays about $103,000. So, when you take a look at how technology and innovation fuels the economy, it’s really interesting to see how that’s growing, specifically in downtown." A study completed by The Downtown Partnership, concluded that every tech job brought downtown create(s) another 1.6 jobs meaning a welcome increase in new restaurants and retail businesses serving the area. All of this could lead to an increase the tax base in the area, resulting in more money for public works and infrastructure. 

Employers do face obstacles in relocating downtown where parking spaces are scarce and costly. On-site parking downtown is generally granted at 1 parking space per one thousand feet of leased space, not attractive for high density space users with a large percentage of employees who commute from the suburbs. Parking rates in mid to high-rise office buildings range from $130 - $200/stall/month, and while surface lots in the area charge slightly less, this added expense prevents many employers from relocating to the area. The planned trolley expansion may ease these concerns, however service along the new line to UTC wouldn’t commence until 2019.

Downtown San Diego has come a long way, and is becoming more attractive to young companies, and businesses locating closer to talent or their employee base. It may take years for San Diego to have a thriving downtown sector, but with support from employers, and local government, will one day reach its potential.