The commercial real estate (CRE) world is changing fast in 2025, and two big areas—office vacancy rates and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) debt—are at the center of it all. Whether you’re a tenant looking for office space, a buyer eyeing an investment, or just someone keeping tabs on the market, understanding these trends is key to making smart moves in a tricky environment.
Let’s break it down.
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Office Vacancy Rates: What’s Going On?
The Big Picture
At the end of 2024, the national office vacancy rate hit 19.8%, up 1.5% from the year before. That’s a big jump, and it’s a clear sign that the office market is still struggling to adapt to the new normal. Remote and hybrid work aren’t going anywhere, and companies are rethinking how much office space they actually need. Many are downsizing or opting for more flexible setups, leaving landlords with empty spaces and shrinking rental incomes.
For tenants, this is a golden opportunity. With so much vacant space, landlords are more willing to cut deals—think lower rents, free renovations, or shorter lease terms. But while tenants are winning in the short term, the bigger picture is a little murkier. High vacancy rates can lead to falling property values and financial headaches for landlords, which could ripple through the market in unexpected ways.
San Francisco: A Cautionary Tale
If you want to see how extreme things can get, look no further than San Francisco. By the third quarter of 2024, the city’s office vacancy rate hit a jaw-dropping 37.3%—a new record. That’s more than one in three offices sitting empty. Why? San Francisco’s tech-heavy economy has been hit hard by the shift to remote work, and many companies are leaving the city altogether.
For tenants in San Francisco, this means incredible bargaining power. But for landlords, it’s a nightmare. Rising costs (like property taxes and maintenance) combined with falling rents are squeezing profits, and some are struggling to stay afloat. It’s a stark reminder that even in prime markets, the office sector is facing serious challenges.
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CMBS Debt: The Other Shoe Drops
Defaults Are on the Rise
While office vacancies are making headlines, the CMBS market is quietly facing its own crisis. CMBS—Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities—are bundles of loans tied to commercial properties, and they’re a major source of financing for the industry. But in 2024, CMBS default rates nearly tripled, hitting 8.7%. That’s the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
What’s driving this? Rising interest rates. As borrowing costs go up, landlords are finding it harder to refinance their debt. This is especially true for single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) loans, which are tied to individual properties. When landlords can’t refinance or sell their properties, defaults become almost inevitable. And with so many office properties struggling, the CMBS market is feeling the heat.
The 1740 Broadway Wake-Up Call
If you needed proof that even the safest bets can go sideways, look no further than the 1740 Broadway office tower in New York City. In 2024, the AAA-rated bond tied to this property was downgraded after a failed sale and delays in appraisals. This was the first loss on a AAA-rated CMBS since 2008, and it sent shockwaves through the industry.
Why does this matter? AAA-rated bonds are supposed to be rock-solid, so a loss like this is a big deal. It’s a reminder that even the most secure investments can be risky in today’s market. For lenders and investors, it’s a wake-up call to be more cautious. For everyone else, it’s a sign that the CRE debt market is on shaky ground.
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What This Means for Tenants and Buyers
Tenants: It’s Your Moment
If you’re looking for office space, now’s the time to strike. With vacancy rates at record highs, landlords are desperate to fill their buildings. That means you can negotiate deals that would’ve been unthinkable a few years ago—lower rents, free upgrades, or even the ability to walk away if your business needs change.
But before you sign on the dotted line, do your homework. Make sure your landlord is financially stable and that the property is well-maintained. The last thing you want is to move into a building that’s headed for foreclosure.
Buyers: Proceed with Caution
For buyers, the market is a mixed bag. On one hand, falling property values and distressed sales can create great opportunities for those with cash to spend. On the other hand, rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions make financing more expensive and harder to come by.
If you’re thinking about buying, focus on properties with strong fundamentals—think location, tenant mix, and long-term growth potential. And don’t be afraid to walk away if the numbers don’t add up. In a market this volatile, patience is a virtue.
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What’s Next? Strategies for 2025 and Beyond
The commercial real estate market is in flux, but that doesn’t mean you can’t come out ahead. Here are a few tips for navigating the challenges and opportunities of 2025:
1. For Tenants:
- Use your leverage. Negotiate lower rents, better terms, and more flexibility.
- Do your due diligence. Make sure your landlord and the property are financially sound.
- Think long-term. Consider how your space needs might change in the next few years.
2. For Buyers:
- Look for value. Distressed sales and falling prices can create great opportunities.
- Be smart about financing. Lock in rates early and explore alternative funding sources.
- Stay disciplined. Don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) push you into a bad deal.
3. For Lenders and Investors:
- Be cautious. Scrutinize borrowers and properties more closely than ever.
- Diversify. Spread your risk across different property types and markets.
- Stay informed. Keep an eye on market trends and regulatory changes.
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The Bottom Line
The commercial real estate market is facing some serious headwinds in 2025, from sky-high office vacancy rates to a shaky CMBS market. But with challenges come opportunities—for tenants, buyers, and investors who are willing to adapt and think strategically.
Whether you’re signing a lease, buying a property, or just keeping an eye on the market, staying informed is your best defense. The CRE world might be unpredictable right now, but with the right approach, you can still come out on top.